April 20, 2024
Comparing Gray-Zone Tactics in the Red Sea and the South China Sea
The Houthis’ activities in the Red Sea and the Chinese actions around Second Thomas Shoal have notable similarities in tactical conduct and adversarial responses.
April 3, 2024
Does a Ship’s Flag Matter?
The container ship that collided with the Francis Scott Key Bridge flew a Singaporean flag, but this is unlikely to play much of a role in the complex legal case to come.
February 13, 2024
Assessing Indonesia’s potential presidents’ South China Sea strategies
The South China Sea strategy of Indonesia's presidential candidates became a focal topic in a recent debate, with the three participants proposing different approaches to this major security issue involving China. Ganjar Pranowo suggested Indonesia should take provisional measures based on the…
February 10, 2024
What Does China Think About India’s Increased Anti-Piracy Patrols Amid the Red Sea Crisis?
India has deployed a beefed-up naval presence to the western Indian Ocean in response to threats to global shipping. China is not happy about it.
January 18, 2024
Muscle and mediation set to continue in the South China Sea
In 2023, tensions between the Philippines and China heightened, marked by hostile encounters in the South China Sea. Regional tensions were compounded by nations – including Japan, US and Australia – advancing their defence strategies in the region. Yet ASEAN are doing their classic strategic…
January 2, 2024
Marcos’ new code of conduct for the South China Sea is a non-starter
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr is seeking to establish a separate code of conduct with Vietnam and Malaysia in the South China Sea. But both these nations are reluctant to provoke China and aim to maintain warm diplomatic relations. Marcos’ call for a new arrangement is unlikely to win…
December 6, 2023
Anchoring the U.S.-Philippines Alliance
The U.S.- Philippine Alliance has advanced significantly over the past two years. The period of transition, from Duterte to Marcos, and the renewed American commitment to the Indo-Pacific under Joe Biden were key determinants. Institutionalizing this progress in ways that allow the alliance to…
November 27, 2023
What exactly is Australia’s strategy of denial meant to do?
The 2023 defence strategic review has been broadly welcomed across the Australian strategic policy commentariat. The reasons for that, and the analysis of what it means, however, are oddly diverse. Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Richard Marles in his opening statement frames it as ‘the…
November 13, 2023
Beijing’s strong-arming of the Philippines plays right into Washington’s hands
On 22 October, two separate collisions took place near Second Thomas Shoal, an underwater feature that an international tribunal in 2016 ruled is part of the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone and continental shelf. A China Coast Guard ship rammed a much smaller civilian vessel contracted by the…