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Analysis

Submitted policy briefs and opinion editorials, and curated analytical pieces from various sources.

September 15, 2024

West Philippine Sea: Several factors force BRP Teresa Magbanua to return – PCG

Faith Argosino, for INQUIRER.NET

Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) vessel BRP Teresa Magbanua was “compelled” to return to port due to unfavorable weather conditions, lack of daily supplies, and structural damage due to the August 31 ramming incident in the West Philippine Sea (WPS).

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September 12, 2024

The implausibility of a Taiwan blockade

John Quiggin, for The Interpreter

If all-out war is an inevitable consequence of a blockade, why wouldn’t China cut to the chase and start the war immediately?

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September 10, 2024

North Korea’s Naval Ambitions: A Strategic Shift

Faith Argosino, for INQUIRER.NET

Historically, North Korea has focused primarily on developing land-based military strength. However, several factors are driving Pyongyang to enhance its naval power.

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September 9, 2024

South China Sea: The “transparency initiative” success is plain to see

Richard Javad Heydarian, for The Interpreter

The spectre of conflict continues to haunt the South China Sea. After months of harassing Philippine naval vessels near the contested Second Thomas Shoal, Chinese maritime forces are now squeezing in Philippine Coast Guard vessels near the Sabina Shoal. In yet another troubling sign of China’s…

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September 9, 2024

The Philippines-China-Vietnam Triangle and Limits of the ‘Friends and Enemies’ Maxim

Huynh Tam Sang, for The Diplomat

Despite shared apprehension of Chinese expansion, Manila may get frustrated if it anticipates too much from Hanoi.

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September 5, 2024

China–Philippines trust in troubled waters

Abdul Rahman Yaacob, Lowy Institute, for East Asia Forum

Despite a deal in July 2024 ensuring uninterrupted resupply missions to the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, tensions between China and the Philippines over the South China Sea remain high with multiple aerial and naval confrontations through August building on deep-seated distrust. Increasing legal…

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September 5, 2024

Malaysia will not stop South China Sea exploration despite China protests, PM says

Reuters

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said on Thursday the country will not stop its oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea despite claims by Beijing that Malaysia was infringing on its territory.

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September 2, 2024

USCG Pacific Comments Latest Chinese Ramming of Philippine Coast Guard Vessel

Gordon Arthur, for Naval News

China, despite its protestations of innocence, is the South China Sea’s greatest source of instability. This was illustrated on 31 August when China Coast Guard (CCG) vessel ‘5205’ deliberately collided with a Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) vessel several times near Sabina Shoal, 75nm from the…

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August 29, 2024

China Prepares to Hand Over Refurbished Naval Facilities, Warships to Cambodia

Sebastian Strangio, for The Diplomat

According to a report by Radio Free Asia, the base, including a 300-meter deep-water pier, will be transferred to the Cambodian navy next month.

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