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Analysis

Submitted policy briefs and opinion editorials, and curated analytical pieces from various sources.

April 3, 2024

Does a Ship’s Flag Matter?

Aisyah Llewellyn, for The Diplomat

The container ship that collided with the Francis Scott Key Bridge flew a Singaporean flag, but this is unlikely to play much of a role in the complex legal case to come.

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March 30, 2024

Perilous Prospects: Tensions Flare At Malaysian, Vietnamese Oil And Gas Fields

Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, CSIS

China Coast Guard patrols near oil and gas projects in the South China Sea have triggered responses from Vietnamese law enforcement and the Malaysian navy in two separate incidents over the last month.

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March 29, 2024

Control By Patrol: The China Coast Guard In 2023

Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, CSIS

The China Coast Guard (CCG) remains the dominant state actor in disputed waters of the South China Sea. Analysis of AIS data from commercial providers MarineTraffic and Starboard Maritime Analytics show that the CCG continued to maintain daily patrols at key features across the South China Sea in…

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March 22, 2024

Southeast Asia stymied in South China Sea dispute

Harshit Prajapati & Prisie Patnayak, Jawaharlal Nehru University, for East Asia Forum

Philippine President Ferdinand R Marcos Jr aimed to counter China's assertiveness in the South China Sea by developing maritime cooperation with Vietnam, cultivating strategic partnerships with Japan, Australia and the United States, and pushing for a successful negotiation of a Code of Conduct…

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March 20, 2024

RO-RO ferries may be China’s route to reunification

Suyash Desai, National Taiwan Normal University, for East Asia Forum

China's military has been rapidly modernising, with aims of reunification with Taiwan. This has lead to an increase in military exercises and live-fire drills across the Strait, particularly since former US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's visit in August 2022. China has also been building up…

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March 19, 2024

China’s Border Strategies and Its Security Paranoia

Miles Maochun Yu, for Hoover Institution

The PRC’s primary strategy in international politics, i.e. Using Confrontation to Extract Cooperation (以对抗求合作) has been equally instrumental in causing China’s security paranoia. A hallmark of China’s diplomatic approach, this strategy seeks to manufacture confrontation and provocation to force…

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March 15, 2024

China loses strategic waters in the South China Sea

Gregory Poling, CSIS, for East Asia Forum

From 2012 to 2021, Beijing continued to advance its claim to 'historic rights' in the South China Sea. But since 2022, Southeast Asian claimants have stopped ceding ground, leading to incidents of Chinese aggression against Philippine vessels and disputes over areas such as the Second Thomas Shoal.…

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February 28, 2024

The Quad’s growing focus on maritime security

Kyoko Hatakeyama, Thomas Wilkins, Miwa Hirono, H.D.P. Envall, for East Asia Forum

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or the Quad, an initiative including Japan, Australia, India and the United States, faces challenges in harmonising its strategic outlook in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly due to India's reluctance to engage on security matters. Despite this, there is an…

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February 28, 2024

Balancing erosion and opportunity in Pacific deep-sea mining

James Borton, Johns Hopkins University, for East Asia Forum

Pacific Islanders live the harsh reality of climate change every day, while the United Nations strives for fair deep-sea mining of crucial green metals. Balancing environmental concerns, equity and economic needs, the International Seabed Authority navigates a complex path, empowering small states…

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